IMF Forecasts Recession in All Portuguese-Speaking Countries Except Mozambique


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a recession in all African Portuguese Speaking Countries (PSC) in 2020, with the exception of Mozambique.


According to the IMF´s updated Economic Forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, released Monday in Washington, Mozambique´s economy will grow 1.4% this year, a downward revision from a previous estimate of 2.2%. Growth should pick up in 2021, to 4.2% (0,5 points bellow the previous forecast).


Angola´s economy is expected by the IMF to fall 4% this year, reflecting the decline in oil production and prices and the country’s financial difficulties. In 2021, growth is expected to pick up to 3.2%.


The worse hit of the PSCs in 2020 will be São Tomé e Príncipe (-6.5%) and Cabo Verde (-5.5%), whose economies are both reliant on tourism.


Equatorial Guinea, also a member of the Portuguese-Speaking countries community (CPLP) is expected to see its economic output drop 8.1% this year, before recovering to positive ground next year, with an expansion of 2.5%, according to IMF forecasts.


Guinea-Bissau should face a recession of -1.9% this year, and grow 4% next year.


According to the IMF, the regional economy is expected to contract 3.2%, 1.6 percentage points worse than projected in April.


The most recent forecasts point to a worsening in 37 out of 45 economies. In nominal terms, the region’s GDP will be USD 243 billion less than projected in October 2019, the IMF adds.



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